African nations today find themselves navigating a rapidly shifting global order. The post-Cold War unipolar moment has given way to a multipolar world, with rising powers like China, India, and others challenging Western dominance. In a recent analysis, James Shikwati argued that Africa must step out of its passive role and become an active architect of its future in this new landscape. He highlighted how Africa was relegated to supplying raw materials under the old order – making up only about 4% of global trade despite housing 17% of the world’s population.
While Shikwati’s piece insightfully critiqued the one-size-fits-all liberal model imposed on Africa and urged leveraging initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), there are notable gaps in his analysis. This article explores those gaps – particularly in the security and social dimensions – and considers developments since its publication. Drawing on perspectives from prominent African scholars and recent global events, I offer a refreshed strategy for Africa to thrive in a multipolar era.
Security and Geopolitics: Beyond Old Alliances
One area that needs more emphasis is the security implications of multipolarity for Africa. Shikwati focused on economic and governance reforms but paid little attention to how shifting great-power rivalries are already playing out on the continent. In recent years, a string of successful military coups in West Africa, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger, has coincided with a decline of French and Western military influence and the rise of new security partners. For example, Mali’s junta expelled French forces and invited Russia’s Wagner Group, hoping for a quick fix to its insurgency. However, as Reuters reports, this pivot to Russia has not yielded greater stability. As French officials observed, the Wagner presence “does not in any way ensure the security of Malian women and men.” Jihadist violence persists, demonstrating that merely swapping one foreign patron for another is not a panacea.
Strategic assertion of agency
African governments thus face a complex balancing act. Mahmood Mamdani, a veteran African scholar, notes a key difference in how major powers engage Africa: “America stands for war-making… China stands for economic development. China wants business, America wants security.” During the Cold War, Africa was often forced into proxy camps; today, leaders are determined not to repeat that mistake. As Mamdani observes, they are keen “to play the drum on both sides” rather than hitch themselves exclusively to any superpower. This resurgence of non-alignment – evident in African positions at forums like the revived Non-Aligned Movement and the UN – is a strategic assertion of agency.
It aligns with the advice from the recent Megatrends Afrika report that African states should leverage competing powers without becoming beholden: a wide variety of partners “allows African actors to choose what they believe is in their best interest”, expanding their room for maneuver. Indeed, the proliferation of external actors (China, Russia, Turkey, the Gulf states, etc.) has created what some analysts refer to as a “market of partnerships” in Africa’s security arena. Governments can now “shop for external support” – whether drones from Turkey or training from Russia – instead of relying solely on Western aid.
Pan-African security initiatives
However, multipolarity is a double-edged sword for African security. The same report cautions that as global rivalry intensifies, Africa risks being “forced to take sides” on issues like Ukraine, which can diminish its bargaining power. Additionally, a broader range of foreign military players in Africa could exacerbate conflicts if they support rival local factions. We see hints of this in Libya’s protracted civil war (with regional powers supporting opposing sides) and in the Sahel, where external interventions have not yet quelled terrorism. The African Union (AU) and regional bodies must therefore step up efforts to develop self-reliant peace and security mechanisms.
Encouragingly, some moves in this direction are underway. In 2024, for instance, Chad’s President Mahamat Déby ordered the closure of foreign bases in the country, signaling a turn toward sovereignty and self-reliance in security matters. Pan-African security initiatives – from reviving the African Standby Force to closer cooperation on counterterrorism intelligence – are critical to reduce overreliance on outside powers. In short, a new African strategy should explicitly address security realignment: balancing partnerships while building indigenous capacity, so that Africa isn’t merely a chessboard for others’ geopolitical games.
Economic Agency and Financial Independence
Shikwati rightly stressed economic transformation – calling for Africa to leverage AfCFTA to add value to exports and adopt a pragmatic blend of liberal and state-led models. Since his article, significant developments have bolstered Africa’s hand in the global economic arena. Most notably, the African Union joined the G20 as a permanent member in late 2023, giving the continent a seat at one of the world’s most influential tables. This was broadly welcomed as “a reflection of Africa’s growing influence and importance on the global stage” and a step toward correcting the historical exclusion of African voices in global economic governance. As Kenyan President William Ruto noted, the AU’s inclusion should increase Africa’s voice, visibility, and influence on issues like trade, debt, and climate change. In practical terms, G20 membership means Africa can more forcefully advocate reforms to the international financial system, aligning with long-standing demands from the Global South.
A new African strategy
Indeed, global financial reform has become a rallying cry for African leaders. The current international financial architecture – dominated by Bretton Woods institutions and dollar-based markets – is viewed as inequitable and even neocolonial. “The system punishes poor countries with high interest rates and harsh conditionalities, while rewarding wealthy nations with very low rates,” President Ruto bluntly observed at the Africa Climate Summit in September 2025. Such injustice, he argued, “locks developing nations in cycles of debt and dependency”, draining resources needed for growth.
African states, from Ghana to Zambia, have faced debt crises exacerbated by these dynamics, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic and global monetary tightening. A new African strategy must therefore prioritize financial independence – from seeking fair debt relief and restructuring, to exploring alternative funding sources through South-South partnerships. The emergence of BRICS’s New Development Bank and Africa’s own financial institutions (like the African Export–Import Bank) offers pathways to reduce reliance on Western lenders. Multipolarity has already enabled countries like Zambia to bring China, Western creditors, and multilateral banks to the same table for debt renegotiation – an outcome unimaginable in a unipolar era.
Africa’s economic agency in a multipolar world
Economically, Africa can also leverage competition among powers for mutual gain. Competition for Africa’s critical minerals (needed in tech and green energy) is heating up between the West, China, and others. Rather than lament a “new scramble,” African governments can negotiate better deals, insist on local processing, and form producer coalitions. Similarly, in the digital sphere, multiple suitors (U.S., EU, China, India) are vying to build Africa’s ICT infrastructure and digital markets. This gives African states leverage to demand technology transfer, data rights protections, and training for local talent.
The key is coordination and strategy: individually, African countries have limited clout, but collectively – via the AU or regional blocs – they can set terms that advance continental goals. AfCFTA is crucial here: by uniting a 1.3 billion population market, Africa can attract investment on its own terms and ensure that trade deals (whether with China’s Belt and Road, the EU’s Global Gateway, or the U.S. Prosper Africa) actually foster industrialization and jobs in Africa. In essence, Africa’s economic agency in a multipolar world means harnessing external interest to drive internal development, rather than remaining an exporter of raw materials and importer of finished goods.
Key Economic Priorities for a New African Strategy:
- Collective Bargaining Power: Utilize the AU’s new G20 seat and forums like BRICS to push for fair trade rules, SDR reallocation, and reform of the IMF/World Bank that gives Africa a greater voice. A united African position can demand changes to the “punitive” financial architecture that Ruto decried.
- AfCFTA and Industrialization: Fully implement the African Continental Free Trade Area by removing non-tariff barriers and improving regional infrastructure. A functioning AfCFTA enables scale and value-addition – e.g. mandating local processing of minerals or agricultural products before export– so Africa isn’t stuck at the bottom of global value chains.
- Diversified Partnerships: Engage not just with China and the West, but also with emerging players (India, Turkey, Gulf states, Brazil) for investment in energy, manufacturing, and technology. Multi-alignment can spur competition, but Africa should vet projects for sustainable benefits and avoid onerous debts, practicing what scholars term “diversified dependency” cautiously.
- Human Capital and Innovation: Negotiate for skills transfer and scholarships in all major investment deals. Invest in STEM education and digital skills at home. A young, skilled workforce will increase Africa’s bargaining power and ability to innovate solutions (from fintech to clean energy) suited to its context.
Social Inclusion and Human Security: The Missing Pieces
Perhaps the largest gap in the original article was its lack of attention to social inclusion and human security. Economic growth and sovereignty mean little if they do not translate into improved lives and rights for Africa’s people. As Simukai Chigudu and others have argued, Africa’s development challenges – from health crises to inequality – are deeply political, rooted in the continent’s historical unequal engagement with the world. The era of structural adjustments left social sectors like healthcare fragile, with disastrous consequences (e.g. Zimbabwe’s 2008 cholera epidemic). A new African strategy must therefore broaden the concept of security beyond the military realm, to include human security: health, education, food security, climate resilience, and the protection of citizens’ rights.
For one, the COVID-19 pandemic showed both Africa’s vulnerabilities and its capabilities. Many African nations initially navigated the pandemic better than expected through community health networks and experience from past outbreaks. Yet the inequity of the global response – Africa’s reliance on imported vaccines and the slow trickle of aid – underscored the need for greater self-sufficiency in healthcare. In the future, building local pharmaceutical capacity (as seen in Senegal’s and Rwanda’s vaccine manufacturing initiatives) and strengthening public health systems are strategic imperatives.
They are as crucial to sovereignty as reducing debt, since a nation dependent on external aid for basic health is not truly free. Scholars like Chigudu highlight that global health interventions often treat symptoms and technical fixes, instead of addressing “social causes of hunger, failing livelihood strategies, and historical dynamics that exclude” segments of society. A people-centric strategy would aim to address those structural injustices, ensuring that development encompasses not only GDP growth but also improvements in well-being and equity.
Empowerment
Gender and youth inclusion represent another critical dimension. The multipolar realignment will falter if it overlooks the voices of women and the youth who form the majority of Africa’s population. Here, the insights of Naminata Diabate and Marame Gueye are instructive. Diabate’s work on African feminist agency shows how African women have long been active in political protests and social change, even using unconventional methods (like the practice of naked protest) to challenge power. She urges a redefinition of agency that challenges stereotypes and amplifies women’s roles in shaping society. Yet, despite progress, women continue to be underrepresented in African political leadership.
Gueye points out that even Senegal, which elected its youngest president in history, “seems to embody retrograde views about women” in governance. Any new strategy must include concrete measures to advance gender equality: from enforcing the AU’s parity commitments in institutions, to investing in girls’ education, to supporting women entrepreneurs in the new AfCFTA markets. Gender equity is not a “soft” issue but a foundation for robust economic and social development. Studies show that empowering women farmers, for example, boosts food security; including women in peace processes leads to more durable peace deals. In sum, inclusive governance is both a values-based goal and a strategic one for resilience.
Twin pillars of accountability and inclusion
Likewise, Africa’s youth bulge can be either a demographic dividend or a source of instability, depending on the quality of governance. Currently, many young Africans are restless – protesting against unemployment, corruption, and gerontocratic elites. A visionary strategy would positively harness this energy. It would expand political participation (by increasing the number of youths in decision-making roles), encourage civic tech and startups, and address the grievances that fuel youth migration and extremism. Encouragingly, we see inspiring examples: the African diaspora and dual-citizens like Zohran Mamdani (the Uganda-born son of Mahmood Mamdani, now a progressive lawmaker in New York) illustrate the potential of transnational African youth to bridge worlds and champion inclusive politics.
His success, as one commentator noted, “is not only an American event; it is an African affirmation — a triumph of belonging over exclusion.” Such stories can galvanize young Africans to believe in change through political engagement rather than opting out or turning to violence. The new African strategy should thus embrace the twin pillars of accountability and inclusion: fighting corruption (through transparent procurement and independent judiciaries, as Shikwati mentioned) and opening up space for diverse voices – women, youth, civil society – in policy decisions. This is how governance gains legitimacy and taps the full talents of society.
Charting Africa’s Path in a New Era
The world of 2025 and beyond presents Africa with both opportunities and challenges. The old patron-client paradigm is fading, and a more fluid multipolar system is emerging – one in which Africa can assert greater agency. The core of Shikwati’s argument remains valid: Africa’s path to prosperity lies in “reclaiming agency” and blending internal reforms with strategic external engagement. However, to craft a truly comprehensive African strategy, we must address the gaps. That means fortifying continental security capacity while engaging multiple powers without blinders. It means striving for economic autonomy – mastering global systems rather than rejecting them – but also demanding a fair say in how those systems are run. It means recognizing that “development” is not just about infrastructure and trade percentages, but about people’s security and dignity – from a mother in a village clinic to a young graduate seeking a job.
Crucially, African leaders and intellectuals should continue to think beyond binaries. As multipolarity gains momentum, the aim should not be to replace Western domination with a Chinese or Russian one, nor to romanticize any external partner. Instead, Africa can champion multilateral solutions and South-South solidarity. The revival of platforms like the Non-Aligned Movement and the G77 indicates a Global South that is increasingly united in purpose. African diplomacy, for instance, has been proactive in climate negotiations and conflict mediation (the African peace mission to Ukraine/Russia in 2023 demonstrated an assertiveness in global affairs). By leveraging these coalitions, Africa can help reshape norms on everything from digital governance to humanitarian intervention – ensuring they reflect voices from Nairobi and Lagos as much as those from Washington or Beijing.
The world is watching
Finally, the role of African scholarship and ideas cannot be understated. Thinkers like Mahmood Mamdani challenge us to confront the legacies of colonialism and invent new political models; feminist scholars like Diabate and Gueye remind us that cultural change and social justice are integral to any grand strategy; analysts like Simukai Chigudu illuminate the connections between global structures and everyday hardships. Such perspectives, along with insights from respected African media and the diaspora, should inform policymaking at the highest levels. They ensure that the vision for Africa’s future is richly African in its grounding, even as it engages globally.
A multipolar world indeed demands a new African strategy – one that is multidimensional and inclusive. Africa must secure its interests amid great-power games, build an economy that serves its people, and uphold the dignity and rights of all its citizens. The task is immense, but the timing is right. As the UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson said of the AU’s recent G20 seat, Africa’s rising influence is “another step towards correcting that imbalance” of the past. Step by step, by addressing the missed pieces and uniting around a bold vision, African nations can turn multipolar volatility into an era of African self-determination and renaissance. The world is watching – and increasingly, listening – as Africa finds its voice and takes the lead in shaping a more equitable global order.